Hari Dass is old, ailing and has retired from carpentry work due to health reasons. A small land-holding and old-age pension that he gets every month, he says, is sufficient to meet his household expenses or to buy medicines for his wife who was hospitalised in Chandigarh a few months back.

A politically informed person, Hari Dass had come to listen to Anurag Thakur speak at a rally. The Union Minister for Information and Broadcasting (I&B) seeking his fifth term from Hamirpur in this election was almost two hours behind schedule but Hari Dass sat patiently, waiting and watching the poll activity.

Groups of youngsters kept going in and out of the venue wearing Modi masks. A group of women was singing parodies praising Modi and urging everyone to vote for Anurag Thakur, and for Modi to be Prime Minister again.

“Modi he banega PM (Modi will be PM again),” he said instantly. Why? When quizzed, he referred to the Covid-19 crisis, giving him credit for free vaccines to the citizens and also to other countries. Anurag Thakur did good work in equipping hospitals with oxygen facilities, masks and other help in Hamirpur during the pandemic. Modi also saved eight ex-Indian naval officers from being sent to death in Qatar. No other leader matches his stature in the country,” he boasted.

Hamirpur is a strong political fortress of Anurag Thakur. His father Prem Kumar Dhumal, a two-time BJP Chief Minister, was a three-time MP from the parliamentary constituency covering the districts of Hamirpur, Bilaspur, Una, Kangra and Mandi.

Hamirpur was a highly water-stressed district a decade back but the situation has changed drastically after Dhumal got a mega water supply scheme commissioned. The road network is also highly robust. This made him earn the title of “Sadakon wala Mukhyamatri”. Agriculture is the dominant occupation with wheat and maize as major crops. Every other household has either a person serving in the Indian Army or an ex-serviceman. The 'Money-order' economy as it was called is Hamirur's backbone for prosperity and high literacy.

As there is no clear Modi wave this time, unlike in 2014 and 2019, and the development agenda also taking a back seat, Anurag Thakur used his opportunity to inject Ayodhya sentiment and “save Sanatan dharma” as a poll pitch for Modi.

“Had Modi not been Prime Minister mandated by the country, Ram Mandir could not have happened. Look at the Congress. It wants to bulldoze the Ram Mandir and put a lock on Ram Lalla. Do you want this to happen? It’s high time to use the power of your vote intelligently,” Thakur pitched.

He went on, “Do you know what Congress has done in Karnataka? They have given the OBC/SC quota to Muslims. If Congress comes to power they will do so in the country. Very soon Sukhu ji (Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu) will be doing the same thing in Himachal.”

Hamirpur is also home to Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu—first-time Congress Chief Minister from the same district where Dhumal rose to this post when BJP formed its first coalition government in 1998 and completed a full five-year term.

The previous two-time Chief Minister from the BJP, Shanta Kumar, did not complete a full term. Dhumal’s political career, however, took a big turn when he lost the 2017 election from Sujanpur (Hamirpur) and missed his third Chief Ministerial term though he had led the party to massive victory.

This led to his political clout facing a downhill drive. He was gradually sidelined under a new BJP regime led by Jairam Thakur—who hailed from Mandi. As a result, Dhumal despite his desire to contest the 2022 assembly polls from Sujanpur to avenge his 2017 defeat, was told to give up his plan and relish the glory of Anurag Thakur’s rise to the Union cabinet, rather than entering an electoral contest of his own. 

This time, Dhumal is not actively campaigning for Anurag Thakur but is going for select functions to supplement his son's efforts. The campaign is entirely on Anurag Thakur's shoulders. 

Sujanpur is one of the six assembly constituencies now witnessing a by-poll after Rajendra Rana—the man who stole the limelight by defeating Dhumal in 2017. But in February 2024 Rana led a rebellion against Chief Minister Sukhu and cross-voted in the Rajya Sabha poll.

Rana suffered disqualification with other Congress rebels who are now in the BJP and contesting the by-polls being held simultaneously with four Lok Sabha constituencies of Hamirpur, Kangra, Mandi and Shimla (Reserve). After joining the BJP, Rana went to Dhumal and sought his blessings for a new inning in the party. "Since he has returned to the party, we have a moral duty to support him in the bypoll," Dhumal told Outlook at his residence in Samirpur.

The assembly constituencies witnessing the by-poll included Sujanpur, Barsar, Dehra, Kutlehar, Dharamshala and Lahaul-Spiti. The elections this time, admitted RS Chauhan, a retired professor of political science, are much different in the history of electoral politics of Himachal Pradesh. The poll outcome of six assembly seats will make or break the future of Chief Minister Sukhu. Thus, it is crucial.

“Sukhu, no doubt, is a gentle face, raised in a modest family with no God-father in politics. But, after assuming Chief Minister’s position, he has made certain mistakes and is now paying its cost,” Prof Chauhan noted.

Of the six assembly constituencies witnessing by-poll, four are in Hamirpur district, which shows the scale of rebellion against Sukhu’s leadership. Doling out cabinet posts arbitrarily to his non-MLA friends, and letting them rule the roost, created conditions of revolt in the home district.

But, in this heightened poll environment, Sukhu is trying to turn the tables on the rebels though it seems like an uphill task to make all lose by-poll.

At Narain, a small village in Barsar, where one of disqualified MLAs, Inder Dutt Lakhanpal, a three-time Congress MLA, is seeking re-election as BJP candidate, Sukhu addressed a poll rally accusing Lakhanpal of hatching a criminal conspiracy with the BJP to topple his government. He sold his consciousness and soul for cash, he claimed and added, “This is an election between honesty and dishonesty. Fight between dhanbal and janbal (Money power and public strength).”

In his entire Lok Sabha campaign, the rebels are Sukhu’s sole target. He uses it as an emotional card to say that the rebels tried to oust him from power using BJP’s money power. “Don’t let this happen. It could be a reminder of how Hamirpur district lost Prem Kumar Dhumal as Chief Minister in 2017,” he said. Sukhu should not be sacrificed of his underlying current though not many are as happy with his style of working as Chief Minister and his failure to fulfill the 10 Congress guarantees talked about during state polls, including Rs 1500 pm to women, 300 units free power and one lakh jobs.  

The abolition of Himachal Services Selection Board – a job recruitment body set-up during the tenure of Prem Kumar Dhumal – was scrapped by Sukhu. The BJP is using this as an issue to play up in Lok Sabha polls.

Nevertheless, discreetly, there is a message going around—Upper ka vote Modi ko, neeche ka vote sukhu ko (Vote Modi for Lok Sabha and back CM Sukhu in by-poll)

Quite emphatically Sukhu rejects BJP’s claims on the possibility of Congress government collapsing on June 4, the day results of the state by-poll and Lok Sabha will be declared. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, during an election meeting with Anurag Thakur, spoke about BJP forming its government soon in Himachal Pradesh.

“I have foiled the BJP bid to topple the government. Now even if the BJP wins bypoll, it will not be able to do anything. The numerical strength of the BJP in the state assembly is 25 and we are 34. All six seats that the Congress had won in 2022, will be with us, beside four Lok Sabha seats. So by losing one Rajya Sabha, we will get 10,” Sukhu told Outlook in an exclusive interview during his campaign trail in Dharamshala which is also headed for a by-poll.

It is the second biggest city after Shimla, a popular tourist place and abode of Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama. Former minister Sudhir Sharma, who got elected here cross-voted with five others, got disqualified and is now contesting again for the saffron party.

Kangra, the state's biggest district with 15 assembly constituencies, is considered the political capital of Himachal Pradesh. Any party—BJP or the Congress alternatively, winning majority seats goes to form the government in Shimla. Despite having won 11 of 15 seats, Kangra did not get its due representation in the Sukhu cabinet.

This turned Sharma against Sukhu and they eventually found Harsh Mahajan, a former political strategist of Virbhadra Singh to engineer cross-voting in his favour. The government narrowly survived the BJP’s topple bid.

Insiders say Sukhu survived not by any counter-effort but because a few more MLAs, including cabinet minister Vikramaditya Singh, who resigned from the government the next day, retraced their step to join the rebels. There are fears about a fresh bid to pull the rags from under Sukhu’s feet, if BJP returns to the centre.

Among the poll issues, the Agniveer scheme has put the BJP on the defensive in Hamirpur and Kangra Parliamentary constituencies where a large number of people are serving the Indian Army. Hamirpur, in particular, sends hundreds of youths to the Army every year.

In Kangra, former Union Minister Anand Sharma contesting as Congress candidate talked about scrapping the Angiveer Yojana when INDIA bloc forms the government. Here, Amit Shah was compelled to release a video to dispel fears about the scheme when he was at Dharamshala.

The disaster that wreaked havoc in Himachal Pradesh in 2023 is another poll issue that Sukhu is blaming the BJP and central government for not granting a special package to the state on issues like the Uttarakhand disaster and Gujarat earthquake. The BJP, on the defensive, counters the charge alleging misuse of money sent under the National Calamity Relief Fund.

The Parliamentary election in Hamirpur looks like a smooth affair. The Congress has fielded former MLA Satpal Raizada after Deputy CM Mukesh Agnihotri expressed his inability to contest due to a personal tragedy. But in neighbouring Mandi constituency BJP candidate and film actress Kangana Ranaut is facing a tough challenge from royal scion Vikramaditya Singh.

In Kangra, Anand Sharma is pitted against Rajeev Bhardwaj. The constituency has been a BJP stronghold for several years. Contest in Shimla (reserve) sitting Congress MLA Vinod Sultanpuri, son of six-time former MP K D Sultanpuri, is locked in a tight contest against two-time MP Suresh Kashyap, a former state BJP president.